HARDING REPORT – JANUARY 2005
**** SPECIAL BUMPER EDITION FOR THE NEW YEAR ***
This month we will take a look at what is in store for 2004 and predictions for 2005.
News from Jefferson County WV Property Market
Each month The Harding Report will include the latest news and information from the Jefferson County, West Virginia property market. This is a free service compiled by Thomas Harding, a licensed real estate agent with Greg Didden Associates in Shepherdstown, West Virginia.
For additional local information or any other property enquiry contact:
Thomas Harding
www.tharding.com
304 671 7292 (cell-phone)
304 876 6400 (office)
CONTENTS
- The Here and Now
- What do our local Real Estate Experts Say about the market in 2005?
- Can anything stop the Housing Market?
- Growth in Sub-Divisions in Eastern Panhandle 2004
- Buy a home with Cash? As always, it depends
- Upcoming Events
HARDING REPORT – JANUARY 2005
1. The Here and Now
It was New Year’s Eve, I was just coming home from my final closing of the year and I was happily dreaming of drinking Egg Nog at a friend’s house. I began to think of past New Year’s Eves and realized there was a difference. At first I thought it was the material differences I saw in front of me. I was no longer living in a big city with overwhelming advertising everywhere I looked. The streets were clean and the air was breathable. I was driving through beautiful countryside with historic houses and still functioning farms. I saw no homeless people huddling desperately in doorways. Traffic was light. I was going home and then I would walk to my friend’s house, I wouldn’t have to travel miles and miles to journey to a New Year’s Eve Party.
Then I realized that the difference was none of these individually, but all of them combined. The difference was that though I am a newcomer to the area, like so many thousands of others, I already feel I belong to the place where I live. I suddenly felt extremely grateful to those who have lived here the longest, that they have welcomed me to their community, and have enabled me to feel so wonderfully at home here so quickly.
So thank you, you the good people of the Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia, thank you for welcoming me and my family so well. And may 2005 be as good as 2004.
HAPPY NEW YEAR TO YOU ALL.
2. What do our local Real Estate Experts Say about the market in 2005?
“I think it will be strong, but things are slowing down a little bit as they should , after an over heated market. I see a leveling off. I think the need for senior citizen housing will be a very active market, will grow by leaps and bounds in next five years”. Dan Anderson, Realtor, ERA Liberty
“I think the $300,000 price range is just sitting there right now. A slow time has already started in that price range. It’s going to be hard to beat last year. Things are always hot in the Corporation of Shepherdstown. I think there has been a little bit of a slow down recently. Anything under $200,000 will be remain hot. Townhouses and villas will sell well in 2005”. Jackie Lewis, Broker Greentree Real Estate
“Market in 2005 is going to be very strong, it will be held back only back by number of things we have to sale. Cash is good and interest rates are both controlled and down. The shortage in the number of listings is controlling the market. There are plenty of buyers and plenty of cash, while interests remain very competitive. The hottest seller in 2005 will be land sales between 3-10 acres. Historic properties will also be very hot as there are so very few homes for sale”. Greg Didden, Broker, Greg Didden Associates
John Orem, Broker, Century 21
“Market is going to stay as brisk as it is. Probably rates continue to stay low. I don’t see have much of a change. New construction will continue to drive prices up, although in Jefferson County the sewer moratorium is slowing this market down, and driving customers to Martinsburg.“ Jeannie Kozak, Remax in Action
“Much of the same is going to happen as 2004, consistency in market, we are planning on a large purchase environment with steady growth in purchase activity, especially in new construction. New construction is going to drive this market. I think majority of economists would predict a slight increase in rates this year with rates should remain mostly stable. Bottom we see really good things happening in this market this year” Brian Foss, Branch Manager, Eastern Panhandle Region Wells Fargo
“I think things are going to remain good but level off. I hope they level off with spike we have had in real estate sales last year. The increase in prices is going to cause our community a tough time in affording real estate in this area. I am not predicting a drop by any means. I think residential sales will be most active. It’s hard to stop new construction with all the lots and builders out there right now. Berkley County has a little bit more room to grown in price than Jefferson county as average sales are considerably lower at this point.” Chip Hensell, Realtor Hensell Real Estate
“I think 2005 will be a little softer than last the two or three years, but it will still be very profitable in historic terms. I think there will be a 10% increase in values, maybe a little less new construction starts. Overall, I think we will have a very strong market. New construction will remain the hottest part of the market.” Dave Pill, Attorney, Pill & Pill
3. Real Estate Trends 2005 – Can Anything Stop the Housing Market?
Last year it seemed real estate in the Washington area could only go up. Sales were up. Prices were up too – spectacularly. The price of an average home in the metropolitan area surged 24% from the third quarter 2003 to the third quarter 2004, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.
Can this continue in 2005?
Most housing economists and market watchers believe that things will scale back from the mighty heights of this year and that home price appreciation, sales and construction will all moderate. (of course many of the same experts also predicted moderation, not records last year and the year before that). Even so, they predict a healthy year ahead nationally.
For the Washington area, the outlook is even rosier. Economists say our area’s real estate market will outperform the nation. They cite tens of thousands of jobs that are expected to be created in the area next year, mostly by the federal government and federal contractors. Demographic trends – foreign immigrants, domestic migration, and longer life spans – are also factors.
- Still housing is particularly sensitive to rising interest rates, and there are some economic situations that could push up rates, economists says. The situations are:
- An ever ballooning budget deficit
- A further deteriorating dollar
- A significant downtown in the national economy that would cause big job losses
- A terrorist attract that would drive up oil prices or interrupt oil supplies.
Barring any of those, housing should remain vibrant in 2005.
(Washington Post, 1/1/2005)
4. Growth in Sub-Divisions in Eastern Panhandle 2004
Where is the real growth in Jefferson County and where is it coming from? Jefferson County is a unique location being just 40 minutes from five major cities, Leesburg, Martinsburg, Hagerstown, Frederick and Winchester. Communities from the Dulles area and Montgomery County, MD discovered Jefferson County and found home prices significantly less than where they work. Quite often these homes are the same models from the same builders. To satisfy the demand, new developments are sprouting rapidly and the established communities continue to grow. Communities like Locust Hills, Huntfield, Breckenridge, Spruce Hills and Norbone Glebe Farms are still mostly new construction. With an almost limitless supply of buyers from nearby Virginia and Maryland the growth in Jefferson County shows no sign of abating. The following table shows which communities are selling and what the average and high price is over the January to November 2004 time frame. These numbers include resales, however a significant amount is new construction.
Top Ten Highest Sales Price
|
|
|
|
Community |
Highest Sale Price |
|
Leisure Acres |
$630,699 |
|
Fernbank Cress Creek |
$565,000 |
|
Sharps Overlook |
$546,000 |
|
Spruce Hill |
$541,374 |
|
Valley View |
$534,900 |
|
Locust Hills |
$522,415 |
|
Eastland |
$521,900 |
|
Breckenridge North |
$515,000 |
|
Huntfield |
$470,218 |
Top Ten Highest Average Sale
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Community |
Number Homes Sold |
Average Sale Price |
|
Sharps Overlook |
2 |
$535,500 |
|
Breckenridge North |
2 |
$480,000 |
|
Summit View |
2 |
$435,500 |
|
Oakleigh |
3 |
$433,800 |
|
Wrights Field |
8 |
$430,774 |
|
Spruce Hill |
32 |
$420,513 |
|
Leisure Acres |
3 |
$417,163 |
|
Fernbank Cress Creek |
16 |
$412,060 |
|
Canvasback |
2 |
$384,900 |
Top Ten Highest Volume Sales
|
|
|
|
Community |
Number Homes Sold |
|
Locust Hills |
101 |
|
Huntfield |
69 |
|
Breckenridge |
67 |
|
Gap View |
44 |
|
Green Meadows |
36 |
|
Briar Run Estates |
34 |
|
Tuscuwilla |
34 |
|
Spruce Hill |
32 |
|
Norbone Glebe Farm |
29 |
Figures For Sub-Divisions in Jefferson County
|
Community |
Number homes sold |
Average sale price |
Highest price |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Abelow Farms |
14 |
$364,969 |
$449,000 |
|
Amber Knoll |
11 |
$336,053 |
$424,013 |
|
Ashley Briar |
5 |
$201,560 |
$251,900 |
|
Avon Bend |
11 |
$164,852 |
$275,000 |
|
Belvedere Heights |
3 |
$166,500 |
$175,000 |
|
Blue Ridge Acres |
13 |
$167,573 |
$210,000 |
|
Breckenridge |
67 |
$296,773 |
$402,521 |
|
Breckenridge North |
2 |
$480,000 |
$515,000 |
|
Briar Run Estates |
34 |
$212,234 |
$267,380 |
|
Canvasback |
2 |
@384,900 |
$449,900 |
|
Carriage Park |
4 |
$372,475 |
$457,500 |
|
Cavalier Heights |
2 |
$156,500 |
$176,000 |
|
Cherry Hill |
2 |
$210,000 |
$325,000 |
|
Claymont Chase |
6 |
$215,398 |
$279,900 |
|
Cloverdale Heights |
7 |
$266,257 |
$386,000 |
|
Conestoga |
4 |
$276,225 |
$349,900 |
|
Country Green TH |
5 |
$236,377 |
$249,911 |
|
Crest View Acres |
2 |
$267,400 |
$299,000 |
|
Crosswinds |
22 |
$268,459 |
$299,000 |
|
Deer Mountain |
5 |
309,975 |
$389,900 |
|
Eastland |
9 |
$337,377 |
$521,900 |
|
Fernbank Cress Creek |
16 |
$412,060 |
$565,000 |
|
Gap View |
44 |
$317,081 |
$439,012 |
|
Glen Haven |
6 |
$272,067 |
$375,000 |
|
Gendale Estates |
2 |
$350,000 |
$393,000 |
|
Glenn Meadows |
3 |
$382,933 |
$425,900 |
|
Green Meadows |
36 |
$183,597 |
$224,000 |
|
Green Valley |
4 |
$351,225 |
$415,000 |
|
Heatherfield |
4 |
$233,600 |
$290,000 |
|
Hidden River Farm |
24 |
$142,177 |
$269,900 |
|
Huntfield |
69 |
$296,245 |
$470,218 |
|
Ledge Low |
2 |
$374,000 |
$435,000 |
|
Leisure Acres |
3 |